Longevity Risk Consideration

Plan Beyond the Average

Retirement planning is not about predicting one life-expectancy age. It is about testing whether Roth-conversion and income strategies remain durable when one or both people live well beyond the midpoint.

Age 84 Owner 50% survival point
Age 87 Spouse 50% survival point
35 years 50% chance at least one is alive
41 years 25% chance at least one is alive

Survival Timeline

Probability alive across the retirement horizon

Dashed lines mark the 50% midpoint and 25% long-life horizon.
Probability alive across the retirement horizon Conditional survival curves for the IRA owner, spouse, and probability that at least one is alive.

50%

Midpoint Checkpoint

The midpoint is not a plan end date

At the 50% survival point, half of a comparable population is still alive. Planning only to this checkpoint leaves the longer-lived half exposed.

25%

Long-Life Horizon

Test the strategy farther out

A 25% survival probability is still meaningful. This longer horizon is a more demanding test of income durability, inflation, taxes, and conversion value.

Planning implication

Roth-conversion benefits and retirement-income durability should be evaluated through the longer 25% survival horizon, not only through the midpoint.